Neglect of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability
|
|
Arpad Rozsas,
Miroslav Sykora
|
| Transactions of the VSB - Technical University of Ostrava, Civil Engineering Series |
|
2015, Volume 15, Issue 2, Pages 195-204
|
|
Doi: 10.1515/tvsb-2015-0022
|
|
Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.
|
|
Download full version of article
|
